Early Polling for the 2024 Presidential Election

Credit: FiveThirtyEight

Luca Presser

As the 2024 presidential election is coming up in less than a year, there are many states that are crucial to which candidate will succeed in winning the election. The states that are important for these candidates to win are called ‘swing states’ as they could swing either way: Republican or Democratic. As of now, there is some early polling that has been done in these swing states, so let’s get into those numbers.

The two frontrunners for the upcoming election are Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump. Though the official Republican candidate has not been announced yet, it is highly likely that Trump will achieve the nomination. The official Republican nomination will be announced in the summer of 2024. Biden and Trump both ran for President in the 2020 Presidential election and Biden came out victorious from that match, but the question remains, who will win this time? 

In the 2020 election,  various swing states determined how the election would turn out. Some of those swing states included Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Texas, Michigan, and Wisconsin which all held a stake in who would end up winning the election (CNN). The states that have the most electoral votes out of the swing states tend to be the most important of the group, namely Florida, Texas, and Pennsylvania. In the 2020 election, Biden won the election after he won the state of Pennsylvania. Despite the fact that states with more electoral votes matter more most of the time, sometimes the smallest amount of electoral votes can assist a candidate in winning the whole election.

In early election polls for the 2024 election, many states which went blue in the 2020 election might end up turning red in this upcoming election. In states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, Trump is leading by a mere one percent, which seems like a small amount, but could result in a Trump victory in these three previously blue states. In Georgia, which Biden won in 2020, Trump is leading by almost five percent. In Arizona and Nevada, Trump is also leading by four and five percent. Biden is about two percent ahead of Trump in Wisconsin and Kentucky, which are other crucial swing states (Race to the White House).

From the data in the early polls, it seems like Trump is projected to win the 2024 election, and it could even be a walk in the park for him. Regardless, the truth of the matter is that these polls are not always accurate to the outcome of how the election will end up looking like (ABC News). These polls are subject to change in the next 11 months before the election takes place. Furthermore, these two candidates still need to get the nominations from their parties, and the two candidates still have to campaign in all of these swing states. These early polls can let the candidates know what states to campaign in. When they do campaigns in these states, it can change many voters’ minds who do not know which candidate they would like to vote for. If Biden were to do a lot of campaigning in the states that he is losing by just one perfect, he could flip that small percentage of potential voters to vote blue.

To everyone who is and will be eligible to vote in the 2024 election, please make sure that you do your research about the candidates. Also, spread the word to your friends and family who are also eligible to vote to get out and vote next October and November. Make sure you register and get out and vote.

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